Bailey Smith

GEE#3MID

Selected in initial starting 18/22 (not including extended Sunday interchange bench and subject to late changes)

Age 25

185cm

Right foot

Drafted 2018 (Pick 7)

Debut 2019

East Malvern (Vic)/Xavier College (Vic)/Old Xavs (Vic)/Sandringham U18/Western Bulldogs

Price

$635k

$-2kthis week

Average

124.8

+129.3L3 avg

Total Points

1,498

+12games

Breakeven

158

33 below avg

Ownership

25.3%

+3rank

Position Rank

+2change

Value

19.65

+20.36L3 value

Career Avg

91.6

+33.3vs season

Last 3 Seasons

99.6

+25.2vs season

Last Year Avg

118.0

+6.9vs season

Score Trend

Price Trajectory

Form & Consistency

Neutral

3-Game Avg

129.3

Prev: 114.7

5-Game Avg

123.0

Projected

121

Range: 107–143

Form Trend

Neutral

prev wk

ConsistencyConsistent

Std Dev: 18.8

Price & Breakeven

Breakevens vs Avg (124.8)

BE1 (1-wk)	158	33 below
BE2 (2-wk)	139	14 below
BE3 (3-wk)	148	23 below

Price Projections

Next wk	$621,000	$-14,300
2 wks	$603,500	$-17,500
3 wks	$591,200	$-12,300

Total Price Change$3k

Score Simulator

ⓘ

Custom Scores

Wk 1

Wk 2

Wk 3

Projected Price Range

Next wk	$638,100 – $638,700	+$3k to +$3k	(API: $-14,300)
2 wks	$633,700 – $633,300	$4k to $5k	(API: $-17,500)
3 wks	$630,800 – $629,800	$3k to $3k	(API: $-12,300)

Total$4k to $5k

Range (±10%) accounts for deflation, rookie discounts, and pricing model variance.

Upcoming Fixtures

Round 13

Adelaide

Home

Adelaide

Projected125

Opp Avg Conceded120.1

Venue Avg109.8

Difficulty

Medium (#10)

Round 14

Gold Coast

Away

GMHBA

Projected99

Opp Avg Conceded89.1

Venue Avg113.8

Difficulty

Medium (#11)

Round 15

Fremantle

Home

Optus

Projected120

Opp Avg Conceded89.4

Venue Avg89.6

Difficulty

Easy (#3)

Upcoming Opponent Matchups

MID vs MID — key opposing players for upcoming fixtures

Round 13 vs Adelaide

Away

Adelaide

Jordan Dawson

MID

Avg 108.6

vs ADE: 96.6 avg (9 gm)H2H: 1 gm — them 60.0 / you 126.0

James Peatling

MID

Avg 87.6

vs ADE: 50.8 avg (4 gm)H2H: 1 gm — them 85.0 / you 126.0

Izak Rankine

MID

Avg 85.8

vs ADE: 75.2 avg (5 gm)H2H: 1 gm — them 91.0 / you 126.0

Jake Soligo

MID

Avg 72.0

vs ADE: 71.4 avg (5 gm)H2H: 1 gm — them 63.0 / you 126.0

Isaac Cumming

MID

Avg 67.3

vs ADE: 101.5 avg (4 gm)H2H: 1 gm — them 86.0 / you 126.0

Round 14 vs Gold Coast

Home

GMHBA

Christian Petracca

MID

Avg 118.0

vs GCS: 96.3 avg (12 gm)H2H: 1 gm — them 92.0 / you 108.0

Noah Anderson

MID

Avg 107.0

vs GCS: 87.5 avg (6 gm)No shared games

Touk Miller

MID

Avg 96.1

vs GCS: 90.8 avg (11 gm)No shared games

Matt Rowell

MID

Avg 94.0

vs GCS: 77.2 avg (5 gm)No shared games

Wil Powell

MID

Avg 81.1

vs GCS: 68.8 avg (5 gm)No shared games

Round 15 vs Fremantle

Away

Optus

Caleb Serong

MID

Avg 101.1

vs FRE: 102.4 avg (7 gm)H2H: 1 gm — them 102.0 / you 147.0

Andrew Brayshaw

MID

Avg 92.3

vs FRE: 104.0 avg (8 gm)H2H: 1 gm — them 101.0 / you 147.0

Nathan O'Driscoll

MID

Avg 76.2

vs FRE: 75.0 avg (3 gm)H2H: 1 gm — them 91.0 / you 147.0

Jaeger O'Meara

MID

Avg 71.3

vs FRE: 78.7 avg (12 gm)H2H: 1 gm — them 79.0 / you 147.0

Corey Wagner

MID

Avg 70.5

vs FRE: 94.0 avg (3 gm)H2H: 1 gm — them 77.0 / you 147.0

Fixture Outlook

Weighted L3 season avg vs each upcoming opponent (40/34/26) — green = favourable, red = tough

Season Fixture

Rd	Opponent	H/A	Venue	Career Avg	L3 Avg	GP	High	Low	Key Opp. Avg	vs Pos	Value
13	AdelaideADE	A	Adelaide	111.5	112.3	6	150	80	126.0(+34)	+0.7	17.2
14	Gold CoastGCS	H	GMHBA	92.8	88.6	6	117	61	108.0(+16)	+2.4	14.0
15	FremantleFRE	A	Optus	85.3	100.4	7	147	46	147.0(+55)	+0.4	15.2
16	BYE
17	BrisbaneBRL	H	GMHBA	79.9	90.0	7	102	63	83.0(-9)	-0.0	14.1
18	GWS GiantsGWS	A	ENGIE	92.0	95.6	8	154	55	113.5(+22)	-2.0	15.0
19	St KildaSTK	H	GMHBA	89.2	85.6	6	126	53	81.0(-11)	-1.3	13.6
20	MelbourneMEL	A	MCG	103.8	101.8	8	141	69	102.6(+11)	+2.0	17.2
21	CollingwoodCOL	A	MCG	90.9	95.8	7	144	36	111.0(+19)	-0.8	15.5
22	EssendonESS	H	GMHBA	98.6	111.4	7	141	72	122.1(+31)	+0.2	17.9
23	North MelbourneNTH	A	Marvel	90.7	128.4	7	156	3	156.0(+64)	+3.3	20.0
24	RichmondRIC	H	GMHBA	91.1	105.1	7	129	59	129.0(+37)	+2.3	14.9