Joe Richards

PTA#35FWD

Selected in initial starting 18/22 (not including extended Sunday interchange bench and subject to late changes)

Age 26

177cm

Right foot

Drafted 2022 (Pick 48)

Debut 2024

Wangaratta Imperials (Vic)/Murray U18/Wangaratta (Vic)/Collingwood

Cold

Price

$329k

$-25kthis week

Average

72.5

+52.3L3 avg

Total Points

725

+10games

Breakeven

18 below avg

Ownership

0.4%

+155rank

Position Rank

150

+5change

Value

22.02

+15.90L3 value

Career Avg

66.2

+6.3vs season

Last 3 Seasons

66.2

+6.3vs season

Last Year Avg

69.8

+2.7vs season

Score Trend

Price Trajectory

Form & Consistency

Cold

3-Game Avg

52.3

Prev: 51.0

5-Game Avg

61.8

Projected

Range: 48–94

Form Trend

Hot

prev wk

ConsistencyVariable

Std Dev: 23.6

Price & Breakeven

Breakevens vs Avg (72.5)

BE1 (1-wk)	90	18 below
BE2 (2-wk)	48	25 above
BE3 (3-wk)	48	25 above

Price Projections

Next wk	$320,900	$-8,300
2 wks	$320,900	+$0
3 wks	$335,900	+$15,000

Total Price Change$49k

Score Simulator

ⓘ

Custom Scores

Wk 1

Wk 2

Wk 3

Projected Price Range

Next wk	$328,200 – $328,000	$1k to $1k	(API: $-8,300)
2 wks	$313,600 – $310,200	$15k to $18k	(API: +$0)
3 wks	$305,500 – $300,300	$8k to $10k	(API: +$15,000)

Total$24k to $29k

Range (±10%) accounts for deflation, rookie discounts, and pricing model variance.

Upcoming Fixtures

Round 11

Carlton

Away

Adelaide

Projected71

Opp Avg Conceded82.5

Venue Avg74.8

Difficulty

Hard (#16)

Round 12: BYE

Round 13

West Coast

Home

Optus

Projected82

Opp Avg Conceded104.7

Venue Avg66.0

Difficulty

Hard (#17)

Upcoming Opponent Matchups

FWD vs DEF — key opposing players for upcoming fixtures

Round 11 vs Carlton

Home

Adelaide

Zac Williams

DEF

Avg 77.3

vs CAR: 84.0 avg (11 gm)H2H: 2 gm — them 103.5 / you 82.5

Jacob Weitering

DEF

Avg 76.7

vs CAR: 66.6 avg (12 gm)H2H: 2 gm — them 69.5 / you 82.5

Adam Saad

DEF

Avg 75.0

vs CAR: 67.5 avg (15 gm)H2H: 2 gm — them 30.5 / you 82.5

Oliver Hollands

DEF

Avg 74.6

vs CAR: 65.8 avg (4 gm)H2H: 2 gm — them 75.5 / you 82.5

Nick Haynes

DEF

Avg 70.8

vs CAR: 87.0 avg (13 gm)H2H: 2 gm — them 98.5 / you 82.5

Round 13 vs West Coast

Away

Optus

Tom McCarthy

DEF

Avg 85.6

vs WCE: 87.0 avg (1 gm)H2H: 1 gm — them 87.0 / you 142.0

Liam Duggan

DEF

Avg 77.5

vs WCE: 67.9 avg (12 gm)H2H: 1 gm — them 80.0 / you 142.0

Ryan Maric

DEF

Avg 68.0

vs WCE: 70.0 avg (1 gm)H2H: 1 gm — them 70.0 / you 142.0

Reuben Ginbey

DEF

Avg 67.7

vs WCE: 72.3 avg (3 gm)H2H: 1 gm — them 94.0 / you 142.0

Rhett Bazzo

DEF

Avg 65.0

vs WCE: 28.0 avg (2 gm)H2H: 1 gm — them 39.0 / you 142.0

Round 14 vs Sydney

Home

Adelaide

Nick Blakey

DEF

Avg 105.6

vs SYD: 85.0 avg (7 gm)H2H: 1 gm — them 126.0 / you 84.0

Callum Mills

DEF

Avg 92.7

vs SYD: 86.4 avg (10 gm)H2H: 1 gm — them 121.0 / you 84.0

Tom McCartin

DEF

Avg 85.3

vs SYD: 43.9 avg (8 gm)H2H: 1 gm — them 43.0 / you 84.0

Riley Bice

DEF

Avg 78.5

vs SYD: 44.0 avg (2 gm)H2H: 1 gm — them 9.0 / you 84.0

Matt Roberts

DEF

Avg 76.7

vs SYD: 99.7 avg (3 gm)H2H: 1 gm — them 95.0 / you 84.0

Fixture Outlook

Weighted L3 season avg vs each upcoming opponent (40/34/26) — green = favourable, red = tough

Season Fixture

Rd	Opponent	H/A	Venue	Career Avg	L3 Avg	GP	High	Low	Key Opp. Avg	vs Pos	Value
11	CarltonCAR	H	Adelaide	82.5	82.5	2	109	56	82.5(+16)	+0.9	25.1
12	BYE
13	West CoastWCE	A	Optus	124.5	125.9	2	142	107	142.0(+76)	+6.1	37.8
14	SydneySYD	H	Adelaide	42.0	45.4	2	84	0	84.0(+18)	-2.6	12.8
15	CollingwoodCOL	A	MCG	45.0	45.0	1	45	45	45.0(-21)	-1.0	13.7
16	AdelaideADE	H	Adelaide	54.3	55.4	3	64	39	51.5(-15)	-1.1	16.5
17	North MelbourneNTH	H	Adelaide	46.0	46.0	1	46	46	46.0(-20)	+5.9	14.0
18	St KildaSTK	A	Marvel	81.0	81.0	1	81	81	81.0(+15)	-2.2	24.6
19	FremantleFRE	H	Adelaide	61.3	68.6	3	100	32	42.0(-24)	-0.9	18.6
20	BrisbaneBRL	A	Gabba	60.0	60.0	1	60	60	60.0(-6)	-0.8	18.2
21	GWS GiantsGWS	H	Adelaide	86.0	86.0	1	86	86	86.0(+20)	-2.0	26.1
22	SydneySYD	A	SCG	42.0	45.4	2	84	0	84.0(+18)	-2.6	12.8
23	MelbourneMEL	H	Adelaide	67.5	67.0	2	74	61	61.0(-5)	-2.3	20.5
24	EssendonESS	A	Marvel	47.5	48.6	2	61	34	61.0(-5)	+1.1	14.4