Matt Guelfi

ESS#35FWD

Selected in initial starting 18/22 (not including extended Sunday interchange bench and subject to late changes)

Age 28

184cm

Right foot

Drafted 2017 (Pick 76)

Debut 2018

Wembley Downs (WA)/Claremont (WAFL)

Price

$258k

Average

36.0

+36.0L3 avg

Total Points

+2games

Breakeven

48 below avg

Ownership

0.1%

+541rank

Position Rank

553

-12change

Value

13.98

+13.98L3 value

Career Avg

58.4

-22.4vs season

Last 3 Seasons

58.0

-22.0vs season

Last Year Avg

47.6

-11.6vs season

Score Trend

Price Trajectory

Form & Consistency

Neutral

3-Game Avg

36.0

Prev: 50.7

5-Game Avg

36.0

Projected

Range: 27–65

Form Trend

Neutral

prev wk

ConsistencyVolatile

Std Dev: 19.5

Price & Breakeven

Breakevens vs Avg (36.0)

BE1 (1-wk)	84	48 below
BE2 (2-wk)	78	42 below
BE3 (3-wk)	41	5 below

Price Projections

Next wk	$240,900	$-16,600
2 wks	$229,100	$-11,800
3 wks	$235,100	+$6,000

Total Price Change+$0k

Score Simulator

ⓘ

Custom Scores

Wk 1

Wk 2

Wk 3

Projected Price Range

Next wk	$218,300 – $209,500	$39k to $48k	(API: $-16,600)
2 wks	$209,600 – $198,800	$9k to $11k	(API: $-11,800)
3 wks	$225,400 – $218,100	+$16k to +$19k	(API: +$6,000)

Total$32k to $39k

Range (±10%) accounts for deflation, rookie discounts, and pricing model variance.

Upcoming Fixtures

Round 11

Richmond

Home

MCG

Projected46

Opp Avg Conceded50.8

Venue Avg62.9

Difficulty

Hard (#18)

Round 12

West Coast

Home

Optus

Projected51

Opp Avg Conceded58.3

Venue Avg46.2

Difficulty

Hard (#17)

Round 13

Carlton

Away

MCG

Projected55

Opp Avg Conceded69.7

Venue Avg62.9

Difficulty

Hard (#16)

Upcoming Opponent Matchups

FWD vs DEF — key opposing players for upcoming fixtures

Round 11 vs Richmond

Away

MCG

Nick Vlastuin

DEF

Avg 74.6

vs RIC: 83.0 avg (18 gm)H2H: 9 gm — them 83.8 / you 50.8

Nathan Broad

DEF

Avg 62.9

vs RIC: 65.6 avg (10 gm)H2H: 8 gm — them 66.4 / you 46.1

Jayden Short

DEF

Avg 101.1

vs RIC: 89.0 avg (11 gm)H2H: 7 gm — them 90.7 / you 49.9

Noah Balta

DEF

Avg 65.7

vs RIC: 76.2 avg (6 gm)H2H: 5 gm — them 74.2 / you 44.8

Ben Miller

DEF

Avg 75.9

vs RIC: 73.8 avg (4 gm)H2H: 3 gm — them 65.0 / you 47.0

Round 12 vs West Coast

Away

Optus

Liam Duggan

DEF

Avg 77.5

vs WCE: 81.8 avg (11 gm)H2H: 8 gm — them 92.1 / you 58.9

Liam Baker

DEF

Avg 63.8

vs WCE: 81.7 avg (9 gm)H2H: 7 gm — them 88.6 / you 45.0

Tom Cole

DEF

Avg 48.3

vs WCE: 57.0 avg (6 gm)H2H: 6 gm — them 57.0 / you 62.8

Brady Hough

DEF

Avg 53.8

vs WCE: 57.0 avg (6 gm)H2H: 5 gm — them 57.4 / you 64.8

Reuben Ginbey

DEF

Avg 67.7

vs WCE: 64.3 avg (4 gm)H2H: 3 gm — them 68.7 / you 84.0

Round 13 vs Carlton

Home

MCG

Oliver Florent

DEF

Avg 89.5

vs CAR: 68.6 avg (14 gm)H2H: 9 gm — them 64.8 / you 42.7

Jacob Weitering

DEF

Avg 76.7

vs CAR: 72.3 avg (11 gm)H2H: 6 gm — them 77.2 / you 74.3

Adam Saad

DEF

Avg 75.0

vs CAR: 79.9 avg (10 gm)H2H: 6 gm — them 93.8 / you 65.3

Nick Haynes

DEF

Avg 70.8

vs CAR: 82.3 avg (12 gm)H2H: 6 gm — them 83.3 / you 68.8

Zac Williams

DEF

Avg 77.3

vs CAR: 89.2 avg (10 gm)H2H: 5 gm — them 86.0 / you 64.0

Fixture Outlook

Weighted L3 season avg vs each upcoming opponent (40/34/26) — green = favourable, red = tough

Season Fixture

Rd	Opponent	H/A	Venue	Career Avg	L3 Avg	GP	High	Low	Key Opp. Avg	vs Pos	Value
11	RichmondRIC	A	MCG	50.8	49.5	9	88	19	47.7(-11)	+0.7	19.2
12	West CoastWCE	A	Optus	58.3	65.1	9	117	20	63.1(+5)	+6.1	26.4
13	CarltonCAR	H	MCG	69.7	73.4	7	96	42	63.0(+5)	+0.9	27.5
14	MelbourneMEL	A	MCG	56.3	50.3	6	74	31	59.6(+1)	-2.3	12.0
15	BYE
16	North MelbourneNTH	A	Marvel	74.8	90.6	9	128	45	67.4(+9)	+5.9	36.9
17	St KildaSTK	H	Marvel	43.8	38.1	5	57	31	53.6(-5)	-2.2	12.0
18	BrisbaneBRL	A	Gabba	53.8	44.5	6	106	10	46.1(-12)	-0.8	11.7
19	GWS GiantsGWS	H	Marvel	56.5	59.3	8	94	16	56.3(-2)	-2.0	21.7
20	HawthornHAW	A	MCG	51.0	53.5	4	68	33	56.3(-2)	-1.4	26.4
21	AdelaideADE	H	Marvel	61.4	64.6	5	101	32	63.3(+5)	-1.1	25.8
22	GeelongGEE	A	GMHBA	67.1	75.3	8	112	40	67.7(+9)	-4.1	27.8
23	SydneySYD	H	MCG	42.7	41.6	9	55	27	41.8(-17)	-2.6	15.0
24	Port AdelaidePTA	H	Marvel	52.0	43.7	6	72	23	47.6(-11)	-0.9	16.7